The dramatic fall in home prices in Stockton, CA got it dubbed as the 'Foreclosure Capitol of the World' for a period of time ... before parts of Nevada claimed the title. Not that things have gotten any better in 3 years, as you can drive down any street and see homes for sale (and plenty that probably will be).
However, many economist feel that 2012 might be the year home prices level off - or stop falling in value, and possibly start rising in some areas towards the end of the year. We actually already see areas of California doing better, as high end areas in San Jose, and anything located near the Silicon Valley have seen some homes appreciate in recent years.
Not in Stockton, CA though.
The problem with Stockton is that expensive home prices actually made the city attractive to commuters who couldn't afford a homes closer to the bay area. Now that many executives can afford homes closer to the coast, they chose to live there now. While not every home buyer was a commuter, it does play a factor in the over-supply that Stockton and other cities are dealing with in the valley.
The other factor is many people in the city were making their living because of the housing boom. Everyone from insurance agents, to underwriters, land owners and the construction workers themselves felt rich for a few years. The reason why the Silicon Valley has recovered quickly is because the companies (and employees) make money from websites, not building shopping malls and homes. With so many low skilled workers in Stockton - and many of the talented ones leaving, the high paying jobs just aren't what they used to be for the under-educated.
So while many economists expect home prices to level off and possibly go up sometime in 2012, we think the average Stockton resident isn't capable of buying a house at the current time because they don't have the skills to get a high paying job. Not to mention, so many people got burned - they can't even qualify for a loan if they wanted to.
That doesn't mean prices will continue to fall.
There are some factors that could help.
- 'Rich' Investors who buy homes for rental income.
- Home prices rise on the coast, causing lower income workers to move.
- Prices have fallen so much, it is hard for them to fall further.